Top Secret: Tehran has made a substantive military concession on the nuclear issue sufficiently significant to serve as a breakthrough to solving the U.S.-Iranian nuclear dispute. But do not tell anyone. This is a secret, and no one in the West is allowed to talk about it. Imagine the plans for global empire that might be spoiled!
The Feb. 21 New York Times review of Iran’s nuclear behavior by David Sanger and William Broad is important: without drawing any conclusions, the facts they present amount to the following:
Iran has demonstrated the capability to pile up moderately enriched uranium fast enough to provoke a real crisis with Israel this year;
Iran has unilaterally postponed the date by which that will happen;
in his public comments, Netanyahu is focusing on only the first item.
In other words, Iran has weakened its own ability to protect itself by unilaterally making a substantive military concession, in response to which (publicly) it is receiving only further threats from Israel and the U.S. In short, Iran has always claimed it wanted enriched uranium for medical purposes and is now converting its uranium from a form potentially useful for making bombs into a form designed for medical purposes. Despite Iran’s concession, Israel continues to push the U.S. toward war. One can only wonder how many U.S. Congressmen and Senators will read past the highly biased New York Times headline to see what is really being reported.
One can only hope that Obama is implementing in private a far more sophisticated and realistic policy than is publicly evident, and this may indeed be the case. During Iranian election season, for Obama loudly to thank Iran for making a huge concession in the face of a U.S. war on several levels against a still-peaceful Iran (i.e., an Iran that is NOT fighting back) would almost certainly backfire. Nevertheless, Iran has made a huge concession, and if that country is ever to decide that it can afford to negotiate with a greatly distrusted U.S., then surely this is the moment when the U.S. must respond positively.
As for Iran, it is virtually unimaginable that Iran could achieve a nuclear breakthrough so sudden and overwhelming that it could balance Israel and hardly likely that it could even suddenly achieve real deterrence capability, so Iran is not really playing a military game so much as a game of symbols. Symbolically, Iran will become a more significant state if it manages to produce one nuclear bomb; militarily, it will actually become less secure because the very real threat of war posed by Netanyahu will greatly increase. So when Iran reveals that it is gaining capability but choosing not to act, it is playing a logical game if one assumes that Washington truly wants a settlement of the nuclear issue that leaves Iran still an independent country. However, Iran is playing a very dangerous game because it does not know if that is true. And even if it is true, it is almost certainly not true of Israel, which clearly appears determined to deprive Iran of both national security and independence. Back to the U.S., rationality has not been the strong suit of U.S. foreign policy for a rather long time, and even if it were, Iran cannot be certain that Israel will not force the issue by launching a strike likely to fail and daring Obama to condemn Israeli aggression.
Washington has been testing Tehran and has discovered that Tehran will not accept humiliation. Now, Tehran’s double message is testing whether or not Washington sincerely wants to resolve the nuclear issue…or is in fact seeking the very different goal of Iranian surrender and subjugation.