Current Economic Indicators

Keep the following evidence in mind when calculating your financial future…
  1. The Baltic Dry Index, a proxy indicator of world trade levels, crashed in 2008 and has remained low ever since but has gone even lower in recent weeks, evidence supporting the hypothesis that not only does the world remain in recession but that it is now suddenly worsening. See Bloomberg’s chart.
  2. Now that 49 states have cut a deal, punitive for sure but more in the nature of a stinging slap on the wrist than a real message to the corrupt super-rich, we may anticipate a flood of foreclosures in 2012, perhaps an additional one million houses over 2011. Anyone think this might further depress housing values and lead to more unemployment? Some of these foreclosures will surely be of fake homes that corrupt investors were trying to flip, but overall, consider this evidence supporting the recession double-dip hypothesis.
  3. The percentage of the U.S. population working continues a steady decline that began even before the Financial Crisis of 2008: population is growing much faster than jobs are being created. If the rising number of working-age adults out of work had decided to go on vacation or if wages were rising fast enough so that Moms could afford to stay home, that would be fine, but these sound like rosy scenarios. This evidence supports the hypothesis that we are not recovering from the recession.

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